Will China initiate a full-scale naval blockade of Taiwan's main ports by December 31, 2026?
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Increasing military drills and 'Joint Sword' exercises throughout 2024 and 2025 have heightened fears of a gray-zone blockade. Reuters reports that Western intelligence is monitoring Chinese capabilities to isolate the island without a kinetic invasion. This market resolves to 'Yes' if a blockade lasting over 48 hours is confirmed by the US Department of Defense.
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