Outcome XE

Will a kinetic military conflict occur between China and Taiwan before January 1, 2027?

$250.39 Vol Jan 1, 2027, 11:59 PM
world
12¢per share

Price Chart

12¢-33.0%past 1D
Oct 10Oct 10Oct 10Oct 10Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 118.8¢12.8¢16.8¢20.9¢
Volume · Spike DetectorSpike at Oct 11
Oct 10Oct 10Oct 10Oct 10Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 110k1k2k

Amber bars = volume spike (>1.8× avg) ·avg line

Live Trades

REAL-TIME
N
14shares @88¢
$12.32 total
18 days ago
Y
11shares @13¢
$1.43 total
20 days ago
N
10shares @89¢
$8.90 total
20 days ago
Y
14shares @11¢
$1.54 total
22 days ago
Y
8shares @12¢
$0.96 total
22 days ago
Y
4shares @11¢
$0.44 total
22 days ago
N
6shares @88¢
$5.28 total
23 days ago
Y
11shares @12¢
$1.32 total
24 days ago
N
11shares @88¢
$9.68 total
24 days ago
N
3shares @87¢
$2.61 total
a month ago
N
8shares @87¢
$6.96 total
a month ago
N
10shares @88¢
$8.80 total
a month ago
N
8shares @87¢
$6.96 total
a month ago
Y
3shares @13¢
$0.39 total
a month ago
N
5shares @89¢
$4.45 total
a month ago

Last Price

88¢

Best Bid

—

Best Ask

—

Spread

—

Bid Depth

0 sh

Ask Depth

0 sh

Total Volume

$250

Order Book

LIVE
PriceSharesVolumeOrders
NOAsks — selling YES / backing NO
11¢—13¢
Spread: 2¢
YESBids — buying YES

Click a price level to trade at that price

Rules & Resolution

Traders on Polymarket are actively updating their views on cross-strait tensions as 2026 progresses. While the implied probability remains low, the market reflects ongoing concerns regarding regional stability and potential military escalation.

Resolution Source

polymarket

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