Outcome XE

Will the NBER declare that a US recession began at any point during the 2026 calendar year?

$226.08 Vol Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM
world
9¢per share

Price Chart

9¢+5.9%past 1D
Oct 10Oct 10Oct 10Oct 10Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 112.3¢5.3¢8.3¢13.7¢
Volume · Spike DetectorSpike at Oct 11
Oct 10Oct 10Oct 10Oct 10Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 110k1k1k

Amber bars = volume spike (>1.8× avg) ·avg line

Live Trades

REAL-TIME
N
4shares @90¢
$3.60 total
20 days ago
Y
11shares @10¢
$1.10 total
21 days ago
Y
12shares @8¢
$0.96 total
21 days ago
N
13shares @92¢
$11.96 total
21 days ago
N
6shares @91¢
$5.46 total
22 days ago
N
11shares @91¢
$10.01 total
23 days ago
N
7shares @91¢
$6.37 total
23 days ago
Y
12shares @9¢
$1.08 total
24 days ago
N
14shares @91¢
$12.74 total
25 days ago
Y
4shares @9¢
$0.36 total
25 days ago
Y
11shares @9¢
$0.99 total
a month ago
Y
4shares @9¢
$0.36 total
a month ago
N
3shares @90¢
$2.70 total
a month ago
Y
10shares @9¢
$0.90 total
a month ago
N
8shares @92¢
$7.36 total
a month ago

Last Price

90¢

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Total Volume

$226

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PriceSharesVolumeOrders
NOAsks — selling YES / backing NO
8¢—10¢
Spread: 2¢
YESBids — buying YES

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Rules & Resolution

While prediction markets currently assign a low 9% probability to a 2026 recession, analysts warn of a 'tighter cycle of geopolitical and economic disruption.' The final determination by NBER typically occurs months after the economic data is finalized.

Resolution Source

polymarket

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