Outcome XE

Will the total US trade deficit for the 2026 calendar year exceed $900 billion?

$232.75 Vol Feb 15, 2027, 11:59 PM
world
50¢per share

Price Chart

50¢-4.9%past 1D
Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 12Oct 12Oct 12Oct 12Oct 12Oct 12Oct 12Oct 12Oct 1242.7¢46.7¢50.7¢57¢
Volume · Spike DetectorSpike at Oct 12
Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 11Oct 12Oct 12Oct 12Oct 12Oct 12Oct 12Oct 12Oct 12Oct 120k1k2k

Amber bars = volume spike (>1.8× avg) ·avg line

Live Trades

REAL-TIME
N
13shares @51¢
$6.63 total
20 days ago
Y
12shares @50¢
$6.00 total
23 days ago
N
5shares @51¢
$2.55 total
23 days ago
Y
12shares @49¢
$5.88 total
23 days ago
Y
7shares @50¢
$3.50 total
25 days ago
N
4shares @49¢
$1.96 total
a month ago
N
3shares @49¢
$1.47 total
a month ago
Y
8shares @50¢
$4.00 total
a month ago
Y
3shares @51¢
$1.53 total
a month ago
N
11shares @50¢
$5.50 total
a month ago
N
8shares @50¢
$4.00 total
a month ago
Y
14shares @49¢
$6.86 total
a month ago
Y
8shares @51¢
$4.08 total
a month ago
Y
9shares @51¢
$4.59 total
a month ago
Y
13shares @50¢
$6.50 total
a month ago

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51¢

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Total Volume

$233

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Rules & Resolution

Prediction markets show high volume on trade deficit outcomes as the US navigates new supply chain partnerships and mineral import disruptions. The search for a deal with China remains a major variable for the final year-end deficit figure.

Resolution Source

polymarket

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